The number of European travelers has dropped sharply as political and economic tensions under President Donald Trump and concerns about hostile borders threaten the world’s most profitable aerospace.
According to the International Trade Agency, tourists from Western Europe who stayed at least one night fell 17% in March from a year ago.
An FT analysis of ITA data showed that travel from some countries including Ireland, Norway and Germany fell by more than 20%.
This trend poses a threat to the U.S. tourism industry, which accounts for 2.5% of the country’s GDP. Some airlines and hotel groups warn that demand for transatlantic travel is declining and “buzz” about visiting the United States.
The total number of overseas tourists to the United States fell 12% year-on-year, the biggest drop in the travel sector’s retreat from the pandemic restrictions in March 2021, according to ITA data.
“In just two months [Trump] “It’s not only more terrifying to the U.S. economy, but it also represents a reputational loss that could require generations of repairs,” said Paul English, co-founder of travel site Kayaking.
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Adam Sacks, president of tourism economics, said the decline may partly reflect the rise of travel during Easter.
But he said other data, including U.S. airports and land intersections from Canada, all indicate that “it’s obvious that something happened…it’s a reaction to Trump.”
Transatlantic routes are the most profitable in
Virgin Atlantic warned last week that U.S. consumers have a “moderate” demand for transatlantic flights.
But British Airways boss IAG and American Airlines Delta said they did not see any impact.
The fate of airlines is closely related to the broader economy, as consumers worry that they tend to stop flying in recessions. Barclays analysts said this week they remained worried about the transatlantic route and they expected a “sudden decline” in profitability.
Naren Shaam, CEO of travel booking site Omio, said booking rates for bookings in the first quarter were 16% higher than a year ago – travelers from the UK, Germany and France showed a higher cancellation rate of 40%.
Sébastien Bazin, CEO of French hotel giant Accor, told Bloomberg that the detention report at the U.S. border caused a “bad buzz” around the U.S. visit.
Accor said last week that bookings for European tourists fell by 25% this summer.
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The decline in international tourists to U.S. tourists highlights the potential economic impact of more aggressive border policies under Trump.
Last year, international tourists spent more than $253 billion on U.S. travel and tourism-related goods and services, more than 19% of U.S. travel spending in 2024.
The American Travel Association is an industry group that warns of “about trends” which boils down to “the welcome issue of the United States.”
Delta president Glen Hauenstein said the airline’s bookings have dropped. The airline took guidance this week in amid broader uncertainty.
Gloria Sync, an artist and writer in Nottingham, England, said she canceled her May trip to San Francisco after seeing reports of detained tourists.
“Borders seem unsafe,” said Sync, a transgender person, who also fears that her identity might bring “unnecessary attention.” “Honestly, I don’t know if I’ll go back.”
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Travel from Canadians, the main source of tourism for “winter” destinations, has also declined. For example, in the United States, such as Las Vegas, 1.4 million Canadians, or a quarter of all international visitors, are welcomed in 2023.
Research firm Tourism Economics previously estimated international arrivals rose 9% compared to 2024, down 9.4% after revising its forecast to last week’s Trump tariff announcement.
Sax also pointed out Trump’s aggressive remarks against the EU, Greenland and Canada. “These are uncompulsory mistakes, they have a significant impact on emotions in the United States and therefore travel as well.”
Trump’s tariffs and his administration’s demolition of foreign aid agency, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), led retiree Paul Harrington, a British living in Paris, to cancel next year’s Washington, D.C.
His two daughters in the UK work in education, and the recession could put public sector jobs at risk.
“I’m now in contact with my friends and visiting me in Paris,” Harrington said. “I won’t visit the United States until Trump leaves.”